Predictions for 2008

Predictions for 2008

(Babble On column for the Sunstar Davao, Friday Dec. 28, 2007)

It’s the end of the year and it’s time for writers and columnists to write about what they think will happen next year in 2008. Here are my bold predictions:

1.) More Political Storms Will Rock the Philippines – Every year there is always some big political event which rocks the nation’s stability. This year it was the Trillanes takeover of the Peninsula, the ZTE brouhaha and accusations of electoral fraud during the elections, among others. In the previous years we had wire-tapping scandals, grave charges of corruption and a lot more. I don’t believe the next year will be any exception. Heck we’ve gotten so used to political scandals in our country, it already feels like a normal event. Which is sort of sad, actually. But that’s Philippine politics for you.

2.) The Philippine Stock Market Will Go Up. – After a very turbulent year for the market, I believe that next year, it will shoot up. I know the market remains volatile and I may sound too optimistic, but stock brokers seem to agree with my upbeat prediction.

Analysts from the Abacus Securities Corporation believe that the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) Index will rise to 5,000 by the second half of 2008, if not sooner (as of this writing, the index is hovering around the 3,500-3,600 mark).

Stockbrokers aren’t the only ones upbeat about the market. Big time companies Cebu Pacific and Pepsi-Cola Philippines plan to list in the market come 2008. The message is clear: it’s time to invest in the stock market. We just have to be careful about it, of course.

3.) The U.S. Dollar will Recover – yes the American greenback continues to falter. Even Americans have started investing in the European Union’s Euros in order to avoid the pain of holding on to dollars. But in an Asian Wall Street Journal article, experts have opined that the dollar is fast approaching its lowest point, and from then on, it should start rising again. This would probably be good news for our OFWs, Call centers and Exporters, who had all been hurt by the dollar’s freefall and the peso’s strength.

I believe that when the dollar rises again it probably won’t hit its high point of 56 plus pesos to a dollar, but at least it will go up again. One businessman friend of mine has even said that he plans to buy as many dollars as he can, since it is extraordinarily cheap now and it will, in his opinion, go back up in 2008.

4.) The Philippine Economy Will Stay Strong –I think 2008 may be a banner year for our country’s economy growth and will help spur the business sector to grow. A number of businesspeople agree.

According to the Philippine Daily Inquirer, Davao City’s very own Joji Ilagan-Bian believes that “the outlook for small and medium sized businesses (like what I have) is bright—there will be more markets for us.”

SM’s Teresita Sy-Coson says that “we are confident that the Philippine economy has sufficient momentum to cope with the external challenges facing it… On that note, we decided to pursue our expansion plans across all our core businesses.”

It looks like a lot of businesspeople think 2008 will be a good year for business. The only question that remains is how you will benefit from it.

5.) The Beijing Olympics will be a success. –After years and years of preparation, the Beijing Olympics will be China’s coming out party, and billions of Chinese will take pride over this. With so much at stake, honor-wise, for the Chinese people, I am sure that the Chinese Government will allow nothing to disrupt it.

So you can expect that the Olympics will be a grand show. Sure there will be some controversies hounding Beijing, but I bet you that, as a whole, the Beijing Olympics will succeed. And China will really start flexing its muscles.

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The predictions I made aren’t based simply on gut feel, even if all predictions do have that element in them. These predictions are what my professors would call “educated guesses.” We’re not sure they will happen, but the information seems to indicate that they will.

So let’s see if my 5 predictions will come true in 2008.